Renowned market strategist Byron Wien, famous for his annual “10 surprises” column, sadly passed away this year at the age of 90. However, the legacy of his predictions lives on as hedge fund manager Doug Kass steps into Wien’s shoes and makes some notable predictions for the upcoming year.
According to Kass, the S&P 500 will not exceed 4,900 in the coming year and may even drop below 4,100. He cites potential factors such as an oil-price scare and military confrontations as causes for this downturn. Kass also believes that the Nasdaq may experience a significant drop of up to 20%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 may also lose ground.
Furthermore, Kass predicts that tech giant Apple will suffer a significant loss in percentage due to escalating trade tensions with China, leading to a decline in overall revenue. In addition, he foresees challenges ahead for the banking sector, especially with commercial real estate failing to recover in value. The private equity industry will also face its fair share of obstacles, according to Kass.
In a surprising prediction, Kass suggests that Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase, will leave the bank to join a presidential administration. Speculations arise as to whether Dimon would potentially serve as Treasury Secretary under figures such as Haley or Whitmer.
Other predictions made by Kass include Tiger Woods winning a major title and Goldman Sachs Chief David Solomon resigning. These projections are eagerly anticipated by investors and enthusiasts alike.
In other news, U.S. stock futures were higher, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped, while the dollar surged against the yen. Additionally, Alphabet’s Google agreed to pay a hefty settlement of $700 million in a Play Store dispute. Tesla also made headlines by announcing plans to provide raises to hourly workers. Moreover, activist investor Cevian Capital has taken a stake in UBS, signaling potential changes in the financial industry.
The U.S. housing market also saw a significant boost, with housing starts jumping by 14.8% in November, reaching the highest level since May. Meanwhile, an ETF that tracks Congress’ stock picks has been outperforming the market, and there are concerns of many stocks being considered “overbought.”
In a more unusual news story, a battle for a €12 billion inheritance has begun after an heir of the Hermès family attempted to adopt his gardener in a bid to secure the fortune.
Lastly, a chart depicting U.S. equity and bond returns dating back to 1800 shows predictions of a modest decline in the S&P 500 alongside gains in bonds. Additionally, the much-anticipated volcano eruption in Iceland has finally occurred, but authorities do not expect any disruption to air travel.
These events and predictions will undoubtedly shape the financial landscape in the coming year, providing both challenges and opportunities for investors and industry experts alike.
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